Broiler production in 2011 is forecast to increase three per cent from 2010. Domestic consumption is expected to remain strong due to Brazil's economic growth; trade sources expect broiler exports to grow by three per cent due to higher exports to new markets.

Brazil's broiler production is forecast to reach 11.8 million metric tons in 2011, up three per cent from the previous year. Producers and analysts expect the Brazilian economy to remain firm in 2011. GDP is projected to grow 7.3 per cent in 2010 and 4.5 per cent in 2011, according to Brazil's Central Bank December 2010 Inflation Report. Lower rates of unemployment – 5.7 per cent in November 2010 – and inflation (5.9 per cent in 2010) combined with improved consumer purchasing power will likely help maintain the current strong domestic demand for animal protein, of which broiler meat in the most competitive.

Feed prices are projected to remain stable during the 2010-11 crop year with estimated record soybean and corn crops. The new crop plan announced by the federal government makes available US$64 billion in subsidized funds to boost production of grains and oilseeds during the coming crop year (1 October to 30 September). Brazil will be producing a large amount of biotech corn and trade sources estimated that up to 55 per cent of the crop is likely to be biotech which is expected to increase yields.

Brazilian broiler exports increased by four per cent in volume but fell 17 per cent by value for January through August 2010. Broiler exports are expected to increase by three per cent in 2011. The negative impact of the valuation of the Brazilian Real and competition from other exporters in Asian markets has contributed to the small increase.

Brazil has increased exports to new markets, such as China, Indonesia and South Africa, as a result of Brazil's strong market promotion efforts in these countries and other emerging markets. Brazil and India reached an agreement on sanitary issues, but India's high import tariffs effectively keep out Brazilian poultry. Exports to the EU are likely to continue to decline in 2011 due to the weakened Euro against the Real, but mostly due to EU restrictions on imports of Brazilian chicken (changes in marketing standards for broiler meat). In this aspect, Brazil is evaluating the possibility of filing a case in the WTO against the EU.

Source: USDA GAIN Report; IMF World Economic Outlook; Banco Central do Brasil www.bcb.gov.br; Brazilian Institute of Geography

Further Reading

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