China is the world's most populous country with the world's largest agricultural economy. Agriculture accounts for 11 per cent of the Chinese economy. As per capita income in China grows, traditional mainstays of the Chinese diet, like grains and tubers, are giving way to rising consumption of non-traditional items like meat and fruit. Broiler meat consumption (including chicken paws) is forecast to rise three per cent to 12.8 million metric tons (MMT), in 2011, following a two per cent increase the previous year. This would boost per-capita broiler consumption to a record 10 kilograms.

Chinese broiler meat output is forecast to grow overfive per cent to 13.2MMT in 2011, outpacing all other meats. Strong pricing and demand for local broiler meat is offsetting continued high feed prices and encouraging producers to expand placements. Reduced imports from the US are also helping boost local prices.

The traditional Chinese diet comprises mostly grains and other starches. Higher incomes are allowing consumer preferences to change, especially among urban dwellers. The Chinese consumer eats about four times as much pork as poultry, which is the second most popular animal protein. Broiler meat consumption grew at an annual rate of 4.9 per cent from 2005 through 2011, compared to 2.2 per cent for pork and 0.7 per cent for beef. Consumers are substituting broiler meat for more highly priced red meats.

China's broiler meat exports in 2011 are expected to increase seven per cent on top of an estimated 29 per cent increase in 2010. Japan and Hong Kong account for nearly 70 per cent of total exports. Exports to the United Kingdom resumed in 2009 and grew 246 per cent from 2009.

China's broiler meat imports in 2011 (excluding chicken paws) are forecast to fall 20 per cent to 230MMT. Imports fell 28 per cent in 2010 (from 401MMT to 287MMT) following the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)'s final determinations in its anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) investigations in 2010. China announced CVD rates of between 5.1 per cent and 30.3 per cent, and AD rates of between 50.3 per cent and 105.4 per cent on imports of subject US poultry.

Chicken paws accounted for almost 66 per cent of China's broiler products imports in 2010, compared to 56 per cent the previous year. Increased imports from Hong Kong, Brazil and France more than made up for the drop in chicken paw imports from the US.
Source: FAS GAIN Report; China's Agricultural Trade: Competitive Conditions and Effects on US Exports, USITC Publication No. 332-518, March 2011

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