CME: Livestock and Poultry Reports to be Released

US - Friday is another big report day for USDA with three reports that are of particular interest to livestock and poultry markets being released, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.
calendar icon 27 June 2012
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The Grains Stocks and Acreage reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT while the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

DowJones released today the results of its pre-report surveys of analysts regarding all three reports. The results appear at right. A few noteworthy items among the analysts’ expectations are:

  • A continuation of the slow growth of the U.S. swine breeding herd. The average estimate of +0.7 per cent from one year ago would be the largest year-on-year growth rate since March 2008 but is only 0.1 per cent higher than the actual rate from the March report. Should the herd actually be 0.7 per cent larger, it would number 5.844 million head, 41,000 more than one year ago and the largest since December 2009.

  • Continued growth in the market herd both in absolute numbers and relative to the breeding herd. 1.3 per cent more market hogs on 1 June would peg the inventory at 60.291 million, the larges 1 June market herd since 2009.

  • Farrowings and farrowing intentions remain low relative to the breeding herd. This follows a pattern across the past few Hogs and Pigs Reports — a pattern that we still do not think characterizes today’s efficient hog farms.

  • An expected slowing in litter size growth. The 1.3 per cent increase would be lower than last quarter’s 1.7 per cent and much lower than the 2 per cent average of the past 4 years. But survey respondents have consistently expected that trend to slow. It hasn’t yet but probably must at some point.
  • Analysts expect only a slight gain — just under 100,000 — in corn acres versus the Prospective Plantings report numbers back in March. Mild weather, an early start to planting and a record-fast pace had many expecting significantly more corn acres at one point.

  • 1.67 million more soybean acres. The soybean market staged a furious fight for acres this spring and early wheat harvests have encouraged what may be a record amount of double cropping. Now if it just rains!

  • Lower corn and wheat stocks, year-on-year, as of June 1. The reductions are expected to be 13 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively.

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