2013 Production Forecast Unchanged While 2012 Moved Lower for New Data

The Post 2013 broiler meat production forecast remains unchanged from the earlier estimate of 2.975 million metric tons (MMT) despite the recent high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, and Jalisco affecting progenitor, breeder, broiler, and layer farms. Post envisioned only fractional growth (one-half of one per cent) in the sector in its earlier forecast and expects its rationale to hold unless additional outbreaks occur or other events dictate a new forecast. The Mexican Poultry Union (UNA) is more optimistic, however, on growth and see it topping 3 MMT in 2013 as the industry believes it will be able to revamp production quickly after the outbreak.

The new Post estimate of Mexican commercial broiler meat production for 2012 is revised to 2.958 MMT from the earlier estimate of 2.965 MMT as additional information became available from the National Poultry Union (UNA). The continued consolidation of the sector has helped the industry buffer itself against elevated feed prices witnessed last year. Additionally, the 2012 high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the State of Jalisco had minimal to no effect on broiler meat production and availability.

Post’s 2011 estimates remain unchanged.