US Turkey Prices Forecast to Fall with Demand Weaker

10 February 2017, at 6:00am

US - Preliminary turkey production data indicated slightly lower December production than previously forecast, leading the fourth-quarter estimate to be lowered, according to the latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook from the US Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

Expectations for 2016 year-ending turkey stocks in cold storage were increased to 245 million pounds due to higher-than-expected stocks as of November 30. This would be the highest year-ending stock figure since 2012.

Weaker demand is expected to pressure prices lower in 2017, the report said.

After increasing much of the year, turkey exports from August to November trended down. Year-to-date exports through to November remained well below the 2012-2014 average with much of the decline due to lower exports to Mexico. Mexico’s turkey industry has expanded, in part due to the 2015 outbreak of avian influenza in the United States.

US turkey exports through to November have increased in some Asian markets, such as Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, as well as in several markets in the Caribbean.

Further Reading

You can view the full report by clicking here.