Daily US graint report: traders tentative ahead of next week's USDA update on US production

US grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading.

4 October 2019

7 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Bulls have faded late this week, amid apprehension ahead of next week's USDA monthly supply and demand report on October 10.

Big and bullish upside price "breakout" from congestion area this week gives bulls power to suggest more upside in the near term; minor bullish pennant pattern has now formed
© Jim Wyckoff

Following this week's quarterly grain stocks report that was bullish and showed lower corn and soybean stockpiles, traders are wondering if USDA next week will make a downward adjustment to this year's corn and soybean production. Corn was down around 2 cents, soybeans down about 2 cents and wheat around 1 cent lower.

Bulls have near-term technical advantage as price uptrend has been restarted; more upside likely in near term
© Jim Wyckoff

Weather in the US Midwest leans slightly toward the bullish camp, as heavy rains hit parts of the Corn Belt this week delayed harvesting of the corn and soybean crops and caused some concerns about quality. In wheat, a major snowstorm in the northern US plains and Canadian prairies last weekend has damaged the spring wheat crops in those regions. Colder weather and some frost potential are forecast for the US midsection next week.

President Trump is expected Friday to announce specifics of a US biofuels policy to help farmers. The new policy should support more production of ethanol from corn.