The EU takes part in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, targeting cuts of 20 percent by 2020, 40 percent by 2030 and 80-95 percent by 2050. To monitor progress towards these goals, the EU and its Member States report their greenhouse gas inventories each year. They also draw up projections to estimate future progress in reducing emissions, and to indicate whether mitigation policies and measures will be effective.

The auditors assessed whether the European Commission, assisted by the European Environment Agency, properly checked the quality of EU greenhouse gas inventories and of the information on planned emission reductions at EU level.

The auditors found that the EU and Member State inventories covered the seven main greenhouse gases and all key sectors, as required by international reporting rules. They also found that the EU greenhouse gas inventory had improved over time. The quality review of inventories was satisfactory and the overall level of uncertainty had decreased in recent years, although the same types of checks were not performed for the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector as for other sectors.

“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus limiting global warming, is an overriding challenge the EU must meet”, said Nikolaos Milionis, the Member of the European Court of Auditors responsible for the report. “The Commission strives to provide accurate data about emission levels. Now it should further improve information on trends and estimates of policy impacts.”

To achieve emission reductions by 2020, the EU has set targets which include most of the reported data, including international aviation. However, the first targets are set for 2030 for the LULUCF sector, and 2050 for international shipping, without any EU intermediate targets or reduction measures. EU guidance and assistance has helped Member States to improve their forecasts. However, the auditors warn, the Commission did not assess the risk of significant deviations from its own global EU reference scenario. Currently, Member States’ aggregated projections beyond 2023 show lower emission reductions than the Commission’s reference scenario.

The Commission recently presented a strategic long-term vision for the EU to become climate neutral by 2050. It also developed several development roadmaps for sectors accounting for 70 percent of emissions, such as transport and energy. However, there are no such specific roadmaps for other key sectors, including LULUCF and agriculture, as the Common Agricultural Policy is defined on a 7-year cycle. Finally, while the Commission performs quality checks on the information submitted by Member States, reporting on the effects of current measures remains incomplete. As a result, the Commission is unable to present a detailed view of how EU and national mitigation policies and measures contribute to meeting emission reduction targets for 2020, 2030 and 2050.