According to the EU's most recent short-term outlook report, which is based on reflections of market experts within the European Commission's Department for Agriculture and Rural Development, EU poultry exports continue to struggle due to high prices.

The combination of strong demand, tight supply, high input costs and overall inflation have been leading to strikingly high poultry prices, well above 2017-2021 average (+38% in mid-Jul-mid-Sep, year-on-year).

EU poultry exports to the UK are due to increase by 20% in 2022 (4% above 2017-2019 average). On the other hand, high EU prices help competitors like Brazil gain some EU market shares, especially in Africa and in Asia.

Overall, EU poultry exports are expected to decrease by 2.2% in 2022 and remain almost stable in 2023.

This shift of destinations makes the divide between volumes and value traded wider, due to different preferences amongst EU partners, the UK importing more valuable cuts.

Highly competitive Brazil is expected to export to the EU 35% more poultry in 2022. Imports from the UK fluctuated in the recent months and may increase by 10% (15% below 2017-2019 average). Benefitting from a suspension of duties, Ukraine is already exporting to the EU higher volumes than in 2021 and that trend is set to continue until the first half of 2023.

Overall, EU poultry imports are expected to increase by 29% in 2022 and 7.7% in 2023.