According to a recent report from the US National Pork Board, pork supply growth is to remain limited for much of 2023.

As of September 1, the hog breeding herd was estimated down from the previous quarter as well as 0.6% lower than a year ago. The pig crop through next Feb is expected to decline y/y, suggesting no supply growth through next summer.

Wholesale pork prices continued to drift lower last week, and hog futures were sharply lower as supplies seasonally increase and large speculative funds have reduced their net long exposure, said the report.

Lower fresh pork (loins, butts) and pork belly prices have been the primary contributor to the decline in wholesale pork prices.

The sharp decline in the price of chicken breasts is seen as negative for pork items that compete in the retail case with chicken, especially pork loins.

Pork trim prices remain high, in part because some end users remain short bought but also due to fewer hams getting boned but shipped whole to Mexico.

Ham prices remain very firm on robust demand from Mexico and retailers looking to cover holiday needs, especially as avian influenza decimates turkey flocks.