USDA lifts 2025 turkey output forecast on higher hatch data
Production to rise into 2026 despite quarterly revisions
14 October 2025
2 minute read
By: Turkey production in July 2025 totalled 426.6 million pounds, down slightly from production for July 2024, but up from the 415.6 million pounds produced in June 2025, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for September.
July turkey slaughter was 17.3 million head, up from 16.5 million in June and 1.4% higher than July 2024. Turkey eggs in incubators on the first of August totalled 25,141 thousand eggs; up 5.3% from July and the highest since April 2024, contributing to an upward adjustment in fourth quarter production.
Updated production and weight data has led to an upward adjustment for third-quarter turkey production by 25 million pounds to 1,250 million pounds and for fourth- quarter turkey production by 20 million pounds to 1,260 million pounds.
Total projected turkey production for 2025 was raised 46 million pounds this month to 4,837 million pounds. Turkey production for 2026 is projected at 5,040 million pounds, down 80 million pounds from the August WASDE but up 4.2% from 2025. Projections for the first quarter of 2026 are down 15 million pounds, the second quarter is revised down 30 million pounds, and production in the back half of the year is also revised lower.
With the start of bird migration seasons, HPAI reappeared in commercial turkey flocks in August with eight new outbreaks in North and South Dakota. In late August 2025, HPAI was detected in a commercial turkey meat flock of 55,400 in Faulk County, South Dakota.
On September 2, a second flock of 52,600 turkeys was confirmed with HPAI in Beadle County, South Dakota. On September 4, two additional flocks (a commercial turkey meat flock of 60,300 birds in Dickey County, North Dakota and a commercial breeding hen flock of 26,900 birds in McPherson County, South Dakota) were impacted.
Between September 9–11, four more cases were reported in North and South Dakota turkey flocks, impacting a combined 202,000 birds.
Turkey imports for 2025 are revised 1 million pounds higher this month at 36 million pounds, driven by higher-than-anticipated import data for the third quarter. Projected imports for 2026 remain unchanged at 28 million pounds. Higher 2025 production is expected to boost exports for 2025 by 5 million pounds to 417 million pounds, while exports for 2026 remain unchanged at 435 million pounds. Ending stocks remain unchanged for 2025 at 190 million pounds, but stocks were revised down 10 million pounds for 2026 to 200 million pounds to reflect the similar downward revision of production.
