Brazil poultry prices firm despite avian influenza shock
Strong demand, exports lift 2025 averages above 2024
2 January 2026
1 minute read
By: Even after the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, in 2025 and the resulting import restrictions imposed by some countries, Brazil’s poultry sector posted positive results, according to Cepea. The outcome underscored the sector’s efficiency and the resilience of the agents involved.
Chilled chicken prices rose in the Greater São Paulo wholesale market in January, continuing a trend that began in August 2024. This movement ran counter to the typical pattern at the start of the year, when prices usually decline due to reduced consumer purchasing power.
Strong export demand, limited supply and firm domestic demand supported prices in the first months of 2025. However, following the avian influenza case in May, several countries suspended imports of Brazilian poultry, forcing the sector to redirect part of the volumes originally destined for export.
As a result, chilled chicken prices, particularly in São Paulo state, fell sharply for three consecutive months. From May to August, prices dropped by nearly 20%, declining from an average of BRL 8.67 per kilogram between January and April to BRL 7.64 per kilogram.
To mitigate impacts and prevent new avian influenza cases, the Brazilian poultry sector implemented effective disease control measures, which allowed trading partners to ease restrictions in the following months.
Despite the price declines, annual averages remained above 2024 levels. In the partial year to November 2025, chilled chicken prices averaged BRL 8.07 per kilogram, up 6.1% from the previous year in real terms, based on IPCA November 2025.
For live chickens in São Paulo state, the annual average was the highest since 2022 in real terms, based on IGP-DI November 2025. From January to November, prices averaged BRL 5.74 per kilogram, an increase of 7% compared to 2024.
