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Good Market Prospects Forecast for EU Poultry Sector

16 July 2015

EU - Low feed prices are pushing up poultry meat production across the EU.

In the first three months of this year production rose by four per cent compared to the same period in 2014, according to the latest Short-Term Outlook for EU arable crops, dairy and meat markets in 2015 and 2016.

The largest rises have been seen in Poland, when production grew by 16 per cent, Spain by eight per cent, France four per cent and Germany two per cent.

The outlook report expects that across the whole EU there will be a rise in production of 240,000 tonnes or two per cent compared to 2014 and this rise is expected to continue into 2016.

World economic growth is expected to be 2.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.3 per cent in 2016. Growth in the EU is forecast to be two per cent this year. In the US it will be two per cent this year and three per cent next year and in China it expected to be six per cent and eight per cent in India.

This growth offers good market prospects for meat and poultry around the world.

The EU prospects on the global market have been given a further boost because of the outbreak of avian influenza in turkey flocks in the US and also because of the weakness of the Euro against the strong US dollar.

Asian and African markets could become a particular target for EU poultry meat exporters.

In the first four months of this year, the EU poultry sector has already seen signs of this increase with an export rise of five per cent, with the Philippines, Benin and Ghana seeing rises in shipments.

According to the EU report, this rise in exports and the new markets are compensating for the loss of the Russian market because of the ban imposed in retaliation for sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

The outlook report expects exports to rise by six per cent this year thanks to these new Asian and African markets.

However, as Brazil starts to get a greater foothold into some markets in Asia and the Middle East, in particular China and Saudi Arabia, and as the US comes back onto the market following the avian influenza outbreak, the rise in EU exports is expected to fall. The EU forecasts that the rise in exports in 2016 will be just 25,000 tonnes.

Imports of poultry meat into the EU in the first four months of the year fell by eight per cent with the fall most keenly felt in Brazil, where there was a 20 per cent drop in exports to the EU. This was largely because Brazil has started to refocus on the Chinese market.

Imports from Thailand have started to return to pre-2014 levels, after the Thai industry started to look to markets closer to home and because of political problems in the country. Thai exports to the EU are expected to rise by three per cent this year.

Poultry meat prices are stable, averaging between €185–190 EUR/100 kg cw.

Chris Harris

Chris Harris

Top image via Shutterstock

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