Brazil - Poultry and Products Annual 2010

A three per cent increase in broiler production is predicted in 2011, according to Joao Faustino Silva in the latest GAIN Report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

22 October 2010

5 minute read

Highlights

Broiler production in 2011 is forecast to increase by three per cent and reach another record of nearly 11.8 million metric tons. The increase in broiler production reflects a combination of strong domestic demand and recovery in exports.

Executive Summary

Post forecasts broiler production to increase by three per cent in 2011 reflecting a general opinion among economic analysts that Brazil’s economic growth is expected to remain firm in 2011 maintaining a high level of domestic consumption. Trade sources also expect broiler exports to increase by three per cent next year as a result of higher exports to new markets, especially China. The outlook for turkey production and exports is for less growth than previous years.

There are no changes to our PSD for broiler in 2009. However, changes have been made to PSD Turkey to reflect new data released by the Poultry Producers Association.

Production

Broiler production in 2011 is forecast to increase by three per cent and reach another record of nearly 11.8 million metric tons. The FAS forecast reflects general optimism among producers and analysts that the Brazilian economy will increase around 5.5 per cent in 2011, with lower rates of unemployment and inflation. Improved consumer purchasing power will likely contribute to maintain the current strong domestic demand for animal proteins, of which broiler is the most competitive type of meat. Trade sources also expect world demand for broilers to improve and that Brazil will continue to increase its broiler exports to new markets, such as China. In addition to these factors, producers expect to have positive returns as feed prices are likely to remain stable in view of higher corn and soybean supplies.

Production costs

Post projects feed prices to remain stable during the 2010-11 with estimated record soybean and corn crops, as the new crop plan announced by the federal government makes available US$64 billion in subsidized funds to boost production of grains and oilseeds during the coming crop year (October 1/September 30). Also of note is that Brazil will be producing a large amount of biotech (genetically modified; GM) corn. Trade sources estimate that up to 55 per cent of the crop is likely to be biotech, which is expected to increase yields.

Consumption

The strong growth of the Brazilian economy, combined with a lower rate of unemployment and low inflation rate, has boosted disposable income in Brazil and is increasing demand for animal protein, particularly broiler meat. Broiler meat is more competitive with other red meats, mostly beef.

Prices

Year	Broiler Cost (US$/kg live weight)	Wholesale Prices
Sao Paulo: Broiler production costs and wholesale prices for broilers (RTC), corn, and soybean meal
Year	Broiler Cost (US$/kg live weight)	Live Weight (US$/kg)	RTC (US$/kg)	Corn (US$/60/kg)	Soybean Meal (US$/kg)
2000	0.47	0.50	0.68	7.78	0.18
2001	0.38	0.41	0.53	4.64	0.19
2002	0.39	0.39	0.50	6.26	0.18
2003	0.47	0.47	0.54	6.54	0.21
2004	0.51	0.51	0.54	6.31	0.23
2005	0.56	0.56	0.55	7.33	0.21
2006	0.54	0.54	0.65	8.00	0.21
2007	0.77	0.80	1.07	11.99	0.28
2008	0.99	0.89	1.27	13.89	0.39
2009	n/a	0.82	1.21	10.50	0.46
2010 (Jan-Jun)	n/a	0.83	1.20	10.36	0.59
RTC= Ready to Cook Source: Trade

In 2011, Brazil’s broiler meat exports are forecast to grow by three per cent. The small increase in exports is attributed to the negative impact of the valuation of the Brazilian Real and competition from other exporters in Asian markets. Most of the growth in chicken exports will likely take place in traditional Brazilian markets in the Middle East. However, trade sources are optimistic about the continued increase in exports to new markets such as China, Indonesia and South Africa as a result of Brazil’s strong market promotion efforts in these countries and other major emerging markets.

Although Brazil and India reached an agreement on sanitary issues, India’s high import tariffs effectively keep out Brazilian poultry. Exports of Brazilian broiler to the European Union are likely to continue to decline in 2011 due to the weakened Euro against the Real, but mostly due to European Union restrictions on imports of Brazilian chicken (changes in marketing standards for broiler meat). In this aspect, Brazil is evaluating the possibility of filing a case in the WTO against the European Union. Exports to Russia are expected to rise slightly as market promotion efforts remain strong in that country. Although an important export market, Venezuela is facing problems with increased defaults to Brazilian exporters.

There are no major changes from the FAS semi-annual report for Brazilian chicken exports in 2010. During the period January to August 2010, exports increased in volume by four per cent but the value increased significantly by 17 per cent. According to FAS trade sources, there is a recovery in chicken prices in the world market from last year, mostly in the emerging markets.