Following a strong world and EU demand fuelling the increase in domestic production in the past few years, the trend marks a slowdown in 2013.

High grain prices in the first semester put pressure on margins, leading to expectations that farmers would limit 2013 production to 12.5 million tonnes, further pushing meat prices to new record levels (€197 per 100kg in May). Despite expected lower prices for feed as of the second half of 2013, the growth rate in production could continue slowing down in 2014.

As regards trade, 2013 exports seem to have reached a plateau at 1.3 million tonnes. Exports are directed mainly to some African countries (only in the first four months, volumes to Benin increased by 14 per cent and to South Africa by 8.0 per cent). While booming to Saudi Arabia (+19 per cent), exports to Hong Kong contracted by 19 per cent. Yet the pace of growth seen in the last years in EU exports is expected to weaken over the projected horizon on the back of increased competition on world market, high production costs and unfavourable US$/€ exchange rate affecting the competitiveness of EU poultry meat.

Meat market prices, index 2005 = 100
(Source: Agriculture and Rural Development DG)

As for imports, once the embargo over Thai poultry was removed in July 2012, the flows into EU of salted poultry meat increased exponentially in the first months of the year - and total poultry meat coming from Thailand increased by 60 per cent compared to the same period of 2012 - and could bring EU imports to a +2.5 per cent rate against 2012. Looking at 2014, no significant changes are foreseen in terms of trade.

Consumption would continue its steady development over the projected period though at a lower rate because of higher prices.

Further Reading

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July 2013