Weekly global protein digest: Changes to US broiler, egg and turkey forecasts

Analyst Jim Wyckoff shares an update on the US futures market, USDA reports and global protein news
calendar icon 22 July 2022
clock icon 5 minute read

USDA monthly livestock outlook summary

Poultry/Eggs: The broiler production forecast for 2022 has been decreased by 25 million pounds. Broiler export expectations for 2022 were raised. Forecasts for both production and exports in 2023 are unchanged. The annual average forecast broiler price forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 152.9 cents per pound. The 2022 table-egg production forecast is revised up based on recent production indicators. Following the recent sharp price increases, the price (wholesale, New York, Grade A, Large) forecasts for the next four quarters are revised up. The egg and egg product export forecast for 2022 is revised down, while the 2022 import forecast is revised up. Turkey production forecasts for 2022 have been raised slightly on strong poult placements. The 2023 production forecast is unchanged. Turkey ending stocks for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged. The turkey export forecast for 2022 is raised 15 million pounds. Import expectations for 2022 are raised as well. Turkey prices are raised 16 cents for the third quarter and five cents for the fourth quarter of 2022 and for each quarter of 2023. Special article:

Beef/Cattle: Conditions continue to elevate beef cow culling rates and placement of calves on feed at a faster-than-expected pace. Lower expected carcass weights in second-half 2022 are more than offset by higher expected fed cattle slaughter in the fourth quarter. This slightly raised projected 2022 production; however, lower weights were carried into first-quarter 2023, marginally reducing next year’s production. Fed cattle prices in third-quarter 2022 were raised on packer demand but unchanged in 2023. Feeder cattle prices are raised on tighter expected supplies. Import projections are unchanged, but exports are raised on Asian demand and stronger demand from smaller markets. Dairy: The all-milk price in May 2022 was $27.30 per hundredweight (cwt), $0.20 higher than April and $8.20 higher than May 2021. The all-milk price forecast for 2022 and has been lowered to $26.15 per cwt (-5 cents), but the 2023 forecast has been raised to $24.15 per cwt (+35 cents). The milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 have been decreased as lower expected yield per cow more than offsets steady expected milk cow numbers. Due to higher prices, which should be reflected at retail level, the domestic use for dairy products was adjusted lower for 2022 and 2023.

Pork/Hogs: Inventory changes and breeding expectations reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs suggest modest adjustments in pork production in the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023. The pork export forecast for the balance of 2022 is reduced due to weak demand in important importing regions and declining competitiveness of U.S. pork in foreign markets, a result of the ongoing appreciation of the U.S. dollar from increasing U.S. interest rates.

Better US pork, beef export sales in latest week

USDA reported Thursday US beef net sales of 23,800 MT for 2022 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 97 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (7,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (5,800 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (3,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for the United Arab Emirates (200 MT) and Chile (100 MT). Exports of 19,600 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (5,800 MT), South Korea (5,500 MT), China (3,300 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

US pork net sales of 20,600 MT for 2022 were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (10,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Canada (1,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Colombia (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 26,700 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,300 MT), China (4,400 MT), Japan (4,200 MT), South Korea (2,000 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT).

US pork checkoff rate to drop 12.5%

USDA formally proposed reducing the pork checkoff rate from 40 cents to 35 cents per $100 value for live animals, in line with a vote by National Pork Producers Council delegates. Revenue from the checkoff is anticipated to fall $13.5 million. The amount raised for promotion and marketing in 2021 was $103.6 million, a 41% increase from the year before due to a 47% increase in live hog prices. The proposed reduction is seen lowering the domestic assessment by $12.3 million and the importer assessment by $1.2 million. However, the notice said that even with the reduction, total program funds "will have increased significantly above 2020 levels owing to the ongoing increase in price levels, assuming general market conditions of 2021 persist."

China’s sow herd increases in June

China’s sow herd at the end of June rose for the second consecutive month, reaching 42.8 million head, according to the country’s ag ministry. While that was up 2% from May, it was still down 6.3% from last year. Current live hog production is at a “normal and reasonable” level, an ag ministry official said. “Live hog and pork production will increase steadily in July and August... the supply of large hogs is guaranteed in the second half of the year,” the official noted.

Chinese pork imports remain light

China imported 120,000 MT of pork in June, down 10,000 MT (7.7%) from May and 64.2% less than last year. Through the first half of this year, China’s pork imports at 800,000 MT fell 65.1% from the same period last year.

Chinese pork production surges

China’s second-quarter pork production climbed to 13.8 MMT, the highest level for the period since at least 2015. China’s first-half pork production jumped 8.2% from year-ago to 29.4 MMT amid an 8.4% increase in slaughter. The country aggressively rebuilt its hog herd following the African swine fever outbreak, but producers starting culling sows later last year amid poor margins. China’s overall hog herd as of June 30 contracted by 1.9% compared to year-ago to 430.67 million head.

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