Weekly protein report: New World screwworm cases beginning to show efforts are gaining ground
20 of 37 total infestations are now resolved
16 July 2026
16 minute read
By: Screwworm fight turns a corner as inactive cases overtake active ones
USDA confirms two more New World screwworm cases in Texas, but 20 of 37 total infestations are now resolved — the clearest sign yet that eradication and containment efforts are gaining ground.
Two additional cases of New World screwworm (NWS) have been confirmed by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) — a case in a dog in Sutton County, Texas, and cattle in Brewster County, Texas — bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 37. Yet the most telling figure in the latest data is not the running total but the split beneath it: 20 of those cases are now considered inactive, leaving 17 active. For the first time since the outbreak was detected, resolved cases outnumber ongoing ones.
That crossover matters because it reframes what the case count is measuring. A rising cumulative total can look alarming in isolation, but when the majority of confirmed infestations have been cleared, the number increasingly reflects cases already contained rather than an infestation gaining ground. Seven counties are now listed as having only inactive cases, meaning the pest was found, addressed, and shows no continuing detection there. The shift from active to inactive is precisely the trajectory an eradication program is built to produce.
The oldest case still classed as active was confirmed in cattle in Medina County, Texas, on June 24, giving a sense of how long the longest-running open cases have persisted. Equally important is what the data does not show. APHIS still reports no cases confirmed in wildlife or feral animals, and no detections in fly traps. Those two absences are significant: they suggest the screwworm has not established a foothold in an untracked wild reservoir, and that the monitored fly population is not signaling undetected spread. Together they indicate the infestation remains concentrated in identified, managed hosts rather than moving through the broader environment.
Cattle correction deepens: This time, cash may have to do the fading
With packers bought ahead, boxed beef slipping below year-ago, funds liquidating — and a swelling stream of dairy-beef cattle and South American imports padding supplies — the burden of convergence is shifting from futures to the cash market. Still, the herd math says any washout will find a floor.
The cattle market's failure to hold Monday's early strength told traders what cattle producers didn't want to hear: the path of least resistance remains lower. August live cattle opened firmer, then bled back to settle at $234.72, down 47 cents, after Friday's close beneath the contract's 100-day moving average — a technical breach that keeps fund liquidation in play. August feeders slipped 25 cents to $354.35, and the CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped more than $4 to $370.42, confirming the weakness is not confined to the fed market.
The debate now centers on the yawning gap between cash and futures. Fed cattle traded last week around $248 live — down a hefty $7 — and roughly $392 dressed, off $10. Even after that break, cash stands some $13 over August futures, a premium that must be resolved by late-summer expiration. Through most of this historic bull run, the answer was automatic: futures, chronically skeptical of the cash market, were dragged up to reality week after week, punishing the shorts. But the burden of convergence looks different today, and honest analysis says cash is likely to do more of the work this time.
Three things have changed. First, sources say packers bought aggressively last week and can sit on their hands until late this week, negotiating from strength for the first time in months. Deeply negative margins — even after clawing back more than $100 a head in input costs — give them every incentive to press the market while they can. Second, the product market has lost its shine at exactly the wrong moment: Choice boxed beef fell $7.07 Monday to $375.61, and cutout values have dipped below year-ago levels for the first time this year as summer heat saps beef demand. Third, the seasonal calendar works against sellers, with the post-July 4th doldrums typically running until back-to-school and early fall buying revives the trade.
The quiet supply cushion: dairy beef. Some analysts argue the tightest-herd-in-75-years story overstates the actual beef shortage, and they have a point. Beef-on-dairy crossbreds have exploded from roughly 50,000 head in 2014 to 3.2 million in 2024, with projections of 5 to 6 million head this year — already 12% to 15% of the fed cattle harvest and climbing. Add record carcass weights, with steers averaging 968 pounds, a stunning 35 pounds heavier than a year ago, and beef production is down only about 5.5% this year despite a nine-year contraction in the beef cow herd. Without the dairy contribution and the extra tonnage per head, the shortfall — and the price peak — would have been considerably more extreme. But this cushion is thinning, not thickening: dairy replacement heifer supplies have fallen to a 20-year low, capping how much further crossbred output can scale, and well-bred dairy-beef feeders are themselves commanding mid-$360s to $370 — hardly the mark of a class of cattle depressing the market. Dairy beef has moderated the highs; it has not repealed the shortage.
Imports are doing more of the heavy lifting. The other supply valve is wide open. First-quarter beef imports hit 1.7 billion pounds, up 15.3% from a year ago, led by Brazil at 394 million pounds and Australia at 334 million. The eye-catcher is Argentina: after the administration expanded its duty-free quota from 20,000 to 100,000 metric tons, Argentine shipments nearly doubled in the first quarter and were up 151% through May by Argentine trade data — on pace to double last year's full-year volume. Brazil filled its "other country" quota in the first week of January and kept shipping over the 26.4% tariff anyway, testimony to how hungry US grinders are for lean trimmings. The market impact is real: cash cattle fell nearly 13% in the month following the Argentina quota announcement, by American Farm Bureau reckoning, and every added load of imported lean dilutes the scarcity premium under cull-cow and trimmings values that had underpinned the whole complex.
None of this repeals the fundamentals that built the rally. The beef cow herd has shrunk nine consecutive years, this year's calf crop is the smallest of that stretch, and heifer retention remains too thin to rebuild numbers — meaning feeder supplies stay tight into 2027 and likely 2028. Weekly slaughter near 529,000 head is running more than 40,000 below year-ago. Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel captures the tension well: markets "get nervous when you're near the top," but the fundamentals haven't changed.
The likely resolution is a meeting in the middle, say some analysts. Cash fades further — packers will surely try for another lower trade this week, and the high $230s to low $240s is a reasonable landing zone for the near term — while futures, already carrying a steep discount, eventually find footing once the fund flush exhausts itself. Feedyards remain current, which limits how hard packers can press before tight showlists bite back. Sources signal the correction is real and probably has another leg — and the dairy-beef and import cushions mean the next rally must be earned by demand rather than handed over by scarcity alone. But this still observers say this looks like a repricing within a bull market, not the end of one. They stress producers should respect the near-term downside, use rallies to shore up fourth-quarter price protection, and remember that basis this strong is itself a marketing signal: sell cattle when they're ready, because the cash market is still paying you to.
Pork industry presses USTR to challenge China’s trade barriers
NPPC says tariffs and sanitary rules still constrain a critical export market
The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is urging the Office of the US Trade Representative to confront Chinese tariffs, subsidies and sanitary restrictions that continue to limit US pork exports despite market-access commitments made under the 2020 Phase One trade agreement.
In comments to USTR, NPPC argued that several Chinese policies conflict with World Trade Organization rules and international standards. Among them is China’s requirement that all US pork shipments test negative for ractopamine residues, even though the feed additive has a maximum residue limit established by the UN Codex Alimentarius Commission and accepted in many other markets.
NPPC also challenged China’s increased inspections and testing of pork from certain US plants following alleged detections of diseases such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome. The group noted that PRRS is endemic in China and that common tests can produce false positives in animals that have been vaccinated.
The organization endorsed USTR’s consideration of a government-to-government US/China Board of Trade. NPPC said such a mechanism could provide regular talks on market access and use technical committees, similar to those under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, to track commitments involving sanitary measures and other non-tariff barriers.
The stakes are substantial for US producers. China was the third-largest market by value for US pork in 2025, purchasing nearly $893 million. It also accounted for 59% of US pork variety-meat exports, including feet, heads, stomachs and hearts — products for which the industry has few alternative markets capable of absorbing comparable volumes and value.
Mexico offal curbs dent US pork export momentum; beef values hold firm
USMEF says May pork exports were higher year over year but masked disruption from Mexico’s PRV-related restrictions, while beef export value rose despite lower volume as demand improved in several non-China markets
The US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), citing USDA data, said May pork exports posted solid year-over-year gains, but the numbers were flattered by an unusually weak May 2025 comparison and sharply limited by Mexico’s restrictions on US pork offal. Beef exports, meanwhile, slipped in volume but edged higher in value, underscoring a market where tight US cattle supplies and stronger pricing are helping offset weaker tonnage.
Pork exports totaled 245,874 metric tons in May, up 10% from a year earlier, with value rising 8% to $701 million. But the comparison comes against May 2025, when trade tensions with China temporarily lifted China’s tariff rate on US pork as high as 172%, severely cutting into pork variety meat shipments. This year, variety meat exports topped 40,000 metric tons in May, but that was still the lowest monthly total of 2026 and well below the January-April average of nearly 49,000 metric tons.
The main drag was Mexico. May pork variety meat exports to Mexico fell 80% from a year earlier to just 3,157 metric tons after restrictions were imposed following the April 30 detection of pseudorabies virus antibodies in five Iowa boars. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said the restrictions are costing the US industry millions of dollars per week while also disrupting Mexican customers that rely on US product.
The broader pork story is still constructive. Japan posted its largest intake of US pork since 2021, Colombia delivered strong growth, and Central America remained a bright spot. For January through May, US pork and pork variety meat exports reached 1.28 million metric tons, up 5%, with value also up 5% to $3.59 billion. That keeps exports less than 1% below last year’s record pace.
The analytical takeaway is that pork demand remains resilient, but the market is now more vulnerable to regulatory friction. Mexico is the central issue because it is both a high-volume market and a critical outlet for variety meats. Even after Mexico eased restrictions in early June to allow offal shipments from states other than Iowa and Texas, source verification requirements and Iowa’s role as the leading US hog-producing state continue to complicate trade flows. Until Mexico fully normalizes access, strong demand in Japan, Colombia and Central America may cushion the impact but not fully replace the value lost in offal channels.
Beef exports showed a different pattern. May shipments totaled 91,925 metric tons, down 5% from a year earlier, but value increased 2% to $818.1 million. Export value per head of fed slaughter reached $468, the highest in nearly four years, reflecting stronger pricing and improved value in several destinations, including Taiwan, Japan, the ASEAN region, Central and South America and Egypt.
China remains the biggest constraint for US beef. Although China renewed some expired US beef plant registrations in mid-May, exports remained minimal because technical obstacles have not been fully resolved. USMEF said many facilities remain suspended, and exporters are reluctant to ship until China removes remaining barriers and addresses Phase One Agreement commitments.
For January through May, beef exports were down 10% in volume to 457,063 metric tons and down 5% in value to $3.95 billion. But excluding China, the picture looks much stronger: volume was down less than 1%, while value was 6% higher. That suggests the underlying non-China beef demand base remains relatively firm, even as overall export totals are held back by China-related access issues.
South Korea could become a more favorable market later this summer. USMEF expects Korean demand for US beef to improve when South Korea’s tariff safeguard on Australian beef is triggered in mid-July. Once that threshold is crossed, the tariff on Australian beef will rise from 5.3% to 24% for the rest of the year, while US beef continues to enter Korea duty-free under the Korea-US FTA. That tariff gap could improve US competitiveness in one of the world’s most important beef import markets.
Lamb exports remained the weakest part of the report. US lamb muscle cut exports totaled just 215 metric tons in May, down 41% from a year earlier, with value falling 28% to $1.3 million. Through the first five months of the year, lamb exports were down 8% in volume and 5% in value. Gains in the Caribbean and Central America have not been enough to offset lower shipments to Mexico and the absence of reported exports to Canada in 2026.
Overall, the May data show US red meat exports are being shaped less by broad demand weakness than by market-access complications and product-specific disruptions. Pork is still running near a record pace, but Mexico’s offal restrictions are creating a costly bottleneck. Beef is losing volume, largely because of China, but stronger values and improving opportunities in Taiwan, Japan, Latin America and potentially South Korea are helping stabilize the export outlook.
US beef exports to China set to rise
China's decision to renew import licenses for US meat plants has yet to revive the beef trade, but the odds of more shipments in the second half of the year are improving, said a report. China's slowing economy and austerity measures have sapped demand for premium cuts of meat. “The US still has a large quota allowance intact, giving it a big advantage, as Australia has run out of quota and Brazil is close to using up its allowance, with Chinese quotas allocated to other major suppliers dwindling,” said the report. “I think there’s still a lot to look forward to when it comes to US beef exports to China in the second half of the year,” Alice Xuan, analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence, told Bloomberg.
Weekly USDA dairy report
CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (7/10) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.6500. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.6500 (-0.0288). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.5600 and 40# blocks at $1.5475. The weekly average for barrels is $1.5270 (+0.0507) and blocks $1.5150 (+0.0862). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.5550. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.5160 (-0.0759). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6900. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6790 (-0.0060).
BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand varies from steady to lighter throughout the country. Export butter demand varies from steady to strong. Spot cream loads are tighter following the holiday weekend, but there is enough available to meet the needs of butter manufacturers. Demand from butter makers is generally stronger. Stakeholders in the West and Central regions report stronger production schedules than stakeholders in the East region. Spot loads of 80 and 82 percent butterfat butter are available. Bulk butter overages range from 3 below to 5 above market across all regions.
CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: East region cheese production is steady, though extreme heat is trimming milk volumes and components. Seasonal July demand softness and lighter private label contracting persist. Some inventories sit slightly above year-ago levels but are manageable, leaving the market tone steady to slightly weaker. Central region cheese production is steady to stronger. Demand is mixed with steady retail, light food service, and strong exports despite pressure from declining European prices. West region milk and cream output are lighter, but cheese plants are receiving expected deliveries. Class III spot milk is available, with moderate demand. Cheese production is stable. Spot loads vary from tight to accessible, and domestic and international demand is steady.
FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Warmer temperatures nationwide are affecting cow comfort, contributing to declining milk production and lower milk components. In addition to lower milk volumes, some producers are having trouble transporting milk and cream. Class I demand is seasonally light with no expected changes in the coming weeks. Class II manufacturers are pulling large volumes of milk cream to meet seasonal demand for ice cream. The majority of spot cream sales are going to Class II facilities. Class III milk demand is increasing in the Central region and steady to light in all other areas. Spot prices for Class III milk range from $3-under to $5-over Class. Contacts indicate the top of the spot range increased as many facilities are using all available volumes. Class IV demand is steady. Some facilities were buying spot cream for churns at the end of last week due to the holiday, but spot cream availability tightened as the week progressed. Condensed skim volumes are less available this week compared to last. Some buyers can still find spot volumes, but prices are lower this week. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.12 – 1.47 in the East; 1.17 1.37 in the Midwest;1.00 – 1.22 in the West.
DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Nonfat dry milk prices moved lower across all regions and heat levels, except for a notable increase at the top of the Central and East price range for low/medium heat. Dry buttermilk prices in the Central and East were steady at the top but declined at the lower end, and prices weakened across the full series in the West. Dry whey pricing was unchanged in all regions aside from a decrease at the top of the Central range. Lactose eased at the top of the price range while the mostly series firmed at both ends, bolstered in part by the addition of Q3 contract pricing. Whey protein concentrate 34% strengthened at the top of the price range while holding steady elsewhere. Dry whole milk prices increased at both ends of the range, with most trading occurring in the lower half. Acid and rennet casein both posted significant increases, with the largest gains occurring at the lower end of each price range.
ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Pennsylvania Monthly Organic Dairy Report, a report created as part of the Organic Dairy Initiative sponsored by the 2018 farm bill, covering April 2026 was released on July 10, 2026. This report showed the weighted average price for fluid milk increased by 9.99 percent from March. The Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Report showed the weighted average price for fluid milk increased 3.47 percent from March. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk categorized as HS-10 code 0401201000. Recently released data for May 2026 indicated organic milk exports were 359,258 liters, down 2.4 percent from the month prior, but up 35.7 percent from May 2025. A large Dutch organic milk processor announced that the guaranteed price for organic farm milk in July 2026 is 63.50 EUR/100kg ($72.63 USD), up 1.75 from June 2026.
WEEKLY GROCERY STORE ACTIVITY: This week conventional dairy ads decreased 8 percent, and organic ads are down 14 percent. Most conventional commodities appeared in fewer ads in Week 28, but ads for flavored milk, cheese, and yogurt increased. In the organic aisle, the only commodities present in last week's survey that appeared in more ads this week are cheese and milk.
