World turkey meat production is forecast to be unchanged in 2012 reaching 5.3 million metric tons (MMT). Production in Brazil is predicted to increase 5 per cent, whereas production in the EU and US are forecast lower. Turkey meat production is expected to drop 2 per cent in the EU and 1 per cent in the US in 2012.

Global turkey meat trading is forecast to remain stable. Exports of turkey meat are projected to remain steady for Brazil, Canada, and the EU. However US exports are expected to decline 5 per cent due to soft demand in several markets. On the flip side, Chinese turkey meat imports are projected to increase due to turkey’s competitive domestic pricing in comparison to pork and broiler meat.

US Turkey Situation

USDA ERS forecasts US turkey meat production for the third quarter of 2011 to hit 1.4 billion pounds, less than 1 per cent lower than 2010 levels. During this time, total head slaughtered is predicted to be lower (-1 per cent), however it is to be offset by increased average weights (+2 per cent). Production in the fourth quarter of 2011 is forecast slightly higher at 1.5 billion pounds. In 2012, production of turkey meat is expected to reach 5.85 billion pounds (less than 1 per cent higher than 2011 levels). Despite strong turkey prices throughout 2011, producers are still expected to face the effects of high grain prices and the persisting slow economy. Total US cold storage holdings at the end of September 2011 were up 9 per cent from 2010 (515 million pounds). Stocks of turkey products in the third quarter of 2011 increased 25 per cent (234 million pounds) from 2010 levels in spite of strong exports (+23 per cent year-over-year through September). Total turkey stocks for 2011 are predicted to be 12 per cent higher (215 million pounds) with higher holdings of turkey products and little to no increase in whole bird stocks expected.

Source: USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook/WASDE

Further Reading

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