According to the European Commission short-term outlook report for agricultural markets, EU poultry production decreased again in 2022, although less than the year before (-1.7%). 

These numbers were driven by declines in major poultry producing countries such as France (-12%), Italy (-9%), and Germany (-3%). Poland, on the other hand, increased its production by 6%. 

Given the developments in 2022, occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is assumed to remain a threat over the whole year rather than being seasonal. On the other hand, its direct impact on poultry meat production is limited as the production could recover quickly. However, the damage for EU exports caused by an introduction of related import bans by third countries is of a stronger magnitude.

EU broiler prices have continued to increase, driven by both tight supply and strong demand, and have reached exceptionally high levels since April 2022. This partly helped to transfer high feed and energy costs down the chain. 

Since 2023, producer prices have been more stable. As feed and energy costs continue to decline from the very high levels observed last year, some production recovery could take place in 2023. Therefore, EU poultry production is likely to grow by around 1.1%. Demand for poultry benefits from general inflation as consumers replace more expensive meats (beef, pigmeat) by cheaper poultry meat. This could support EU poultry consumption growth in 2023 (+2.5%).