Mexican chicken production to rise by 2% in 2024 - GAIN

Increased production constrained by avian influenza outbreaks
calendar icon 7 September 2023
clock icon 2 minute read

Improved stocks at poultry breeder facilities and lower feed prices are forecast to increase Mexico's chicken meat production by 2% in 2024, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report

Production is forecast 2% higher from 2023 to 3.9 MMT on a projected modest decline in feed prices and strong domestic demand. Increased biosecurity measures implemented to prevent disease outbreaks in the aftermath of the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2022 and increased investments in broiler genetics are expected to support increased production.

For 2023, production is estimated 1% higher from 2022 at 3.8 MMT. Relatively less elevated grains prices combined with a record-level appreciation of the Mexican peso are estimated to lower producer costs and spur increased production. However, large increases to production are constrained by continued recovery from the 2022 HPAI outbreak which resulted in culled breeding flocks. While Mexico made investments into broiler genetics, further increases to production are not expected until 2024.

As of June 2023, SIAP reports 1.6 MMT of chicken meat production. Chicken production is spread across Mexico, with sixty percent of reported production so far this year coming from the states of Veracruz, Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Queretaro, Durango, and Guanajuato.

Mexico is currently the sixth largest chicken meat producer globally and meets close to 80% of domestic chicken meat consumption. Over the last ten years, domestic chicken meat production has grown more than 30%. 

While imports expanded 45 percent during the same period, they have continued to account for 20 percent of domestic consumption, indicating that growth in imports will continue to be tied to and constrained by overall consumption growth. 

Mexico’s competitiveness as a poultry producer is driven by the availability of local labour and access to a price-competitive supply of abundant feed grains and oilseeds, co-products such as distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and other inputs including poultry genetics from the United States.

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