Overall food prices will increase between 2.5 to 4.5% in 2024, according to the 14^th edition of Canada’s Food Price Report. This is compared to an average of 5.9% in 2023 and 10.3% in 2022.

The report, which examines the impact of food inflation on Canadians and possible reasons for food price inflation trends, is an annual collaboration between researchers at the University of British Columbia, Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph and the University of Saskatchewan.

The report projects that the average Canadian family of four will spend $16,297.20 on food in 2024, an increase of $701.79 from last year.

The most significant increases range from 5–7% for bakery items, meat and vegetables.

2024 may see a mild deflationary period, resulting in lower prices for some essential food items.

Climate change, energy costs and inflation will be key drivers of increased food prices in 2024.

Proposed and existing policies and regulations such as the grocery competition in Canada bill C-56 and plans for plastic packaging reductions in the food sector, geopolitical tensions and household budget constraints are other factors that could impact inflation, food prices and purchasing power.

Despite inflation, Canadians spent less on food in 2023 with food retail sales data indicating a decline in monthly spending per capita between August 2022 and August 2023 from $261.24 to $252.89. This suggests that Canadians spent less on groceries by reducing the quantity or quality of food they purchased, or by substituting cheaper alternatives.

The full report can be found here.