2007: Trade of Red Meats and Poultry Forecast Stronger Among Major Traders as Disease-related Trade Restrictions Decline

Red meat and poultry trade by selected countries will remain strong in 2007. Exports by major traders of beef, pork and broiler meat will increase by 6.5 percent, 2.6 percent, and 4.1 percent respectively. Trade is expected to continue to recover from animal disease outbreaks (bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), foot and mouth disease (FMD), and avian influenza (AI)) and their resulting trade impacts.

United States Poultry Exports

U.S. broiler meat exports are forecast to increase 2.2 percent in 2007 to 2.5 million tons. U.S. turkey exports are also forecast to experience strong growth in 2007 rising 7.9 percent to 261,000 tons.

Exports to recuperate in 2007

Broiler meat exports by major traders are forecast to increase 4 percent to 6.7 million tons in 2007 after dropping in 2006. Major exporters are forecast to increase shipments or have steady sales with no significant shifts in market shares in 2007. While U.S. market share is expected to increase to 37 percent, Brazil’s share is expected to drop by 1 point to 38 percent and the European Union share remain constant at 10 percent. Though EU broiler meat exports have declined since 2004, exports are forecast to recover in 2007 after dropping again in 2006 as temporary bans placed on French exports due to an AI outbreak on a commercial poultry farm are lifted.

Brazilian exports to rebound in 2007

Following a succession of annual increases in exports from 1999-2005, Brazilian broiler exports are expected to decrease in 2006 due to weakening demand in some of its major export markets. This is a result of the strengthening of the Real against major currencies and AI concerns which led consumers in importing countries to substitute other meat and protein sources for poultry. As a result, Brazil’s poultry sector was facing an oversupply situation. Brazil’s broiler meat exports are forecast to increase 2 percent to nearly 2.6 million tons in 2007 as a result of increased consumer demand as AI concerns decline, increased sales to Russia, and aggressive marketing.

Total imports by major traders to increase in 2007

Despite a forecasted import decline in broiler meat imports by Russia and Japan in 2007, imports by major traders are forecast to increase over 3 percent to over 5.3 million tons. Chinese imports are forecast to expand in 2007 to levels similar to years prior to 2004 when imports were not affected by avian influenza concerns. Mexican broiler imports are forecast to grow 6 percent in 2007 despite higher production. Increased domestic use is the main driving factor in Mexico’s import growth as more investment is put into their domestic poultry processing industry. Japanese broiler meat imports are forecast to drop in 2007 due to stable production and higher stocks.

EU imports to rise

EU broiler meat imports are expected to increase substantially in 2006 (15 percent) and are forecast to increase nearly 8 percent in 2007 to 645,000 tons. While the EU is negotiating a poultry TRQ with Brazil and Thailand, the EU’s loss of the appeal to the WTO of the salted poultry case in June 2006 will result in increased imports from Brazil and Thailand at reduced tariffs.

Russian imports to decline

Russia, the largest importer of broiler meat, is forecast to decrease imports in 2007 by over 7 percent to nearly 1.2 million tons. Russian imports are forecast to decrease as Russian poultry production has been increasing steadily in recent years and is expected to reach another record in 2007. The U.S. supplies over 60 percent of its poultry import needs and the rest is covered mainly by Brazil.

Turkey meat imports forecast to increase in 2007

Turkey meat imports by selected countries are forecast at 459,000 tons in 2007. Turkey imports by Mexico and the EU are both forecast to increase by 5 percent in 2007. Turkey exports by major traders are forecast to increase over 5 percent in 2007 after declining nearly 10 percent in 2006 due to reduced demand caused by AI-concerns and AI-related trade bans on EU exports. U.S. turkey meat exports are forecast to increase nearly 8 percent to 261,000 tons in 2007. Market shares among major traders will remain essentially unchanged in 2007.

October 2006